Why Kevin Durant Will Never Be the Player LeBron Is

Many Basketball writers, bloggers, and commenters have fallen in love with Kevin Durant over the past few years, with the praise seemingly reaching its peak earlier this season. Things came to a head when, before the season started, writer Bill Simmons suggested on Pardon the Interruption that Durant might have a better career than LeBron James. Naturally Kornheiser and Wilbon were incredulous (as was I). Simmons clarified this statement, I believe, in a column. His point was that Durant might end up being a better scorer (possible) and having more team success than LeBron, based on the ridiculous amount of young talent on the Former Sonics - Westbrook, Green, and Harden in particular. Obviously it is impossible to project future team success so early in LeBron and Durant's respective careers (who thought, as late as the beginning of the 1990-91 season, that Michael Jordan would go down as one of the greatest winners in league history?). I am inclined to predict that LeBron will probably finish with more championships than Durant, based simply on their playing styles, as unselfish stars (Magic, Bird, Duncan) usually win more often than volume-scorers (Jordan doesn't qualify as a volume-scorer because he brought so much more to the table; Kobe...same thing I guess).

Point being, there seems to be faction of NBA fans who believe that Kevin Durant will some day be better than LeBron, without qualification. I am absolutely befuddled by this. Under no circumstances will I ever think Durant is a better player. Operative word is player. Durant is a great scorer, possibly better than LeBron, but he is not nearly the player LeBron is.

(Before I go further with this, let me qualify: I have nothing against Durant. I like Durant. I like his game. I love watching the Former Sonics play. I just hate all the fellatio he receives from the media for being a taller, modern-day Alex English or Adrian Dantley (full disclosure: I've never seen either English or Dantley play, but by what I've read and their stats, I feel the comparison is apt).)

I want compare LeBron and Durant's first three seasons in the Association. For fairness' sake, I'll compare the per-36 minute stats (LeBron played 41.5 minutes his first three seasons, Durant 37.5). It's also hard to compare the two, as their supporting casts were rather different (and I'm not nearly enough of a stathead to figure out statistical +/- or any of that jazz). However I will says this: LeBron had more success in his first three years with a supporting cast not that much better than Durant's. Following is team record and each player's four best teammates that year:

LeBron, 03-04: 35-47 (Carlos Boozer, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ricky Davis, Jeff McInnis)
Durant, 07-08: 20-62 (Wally Szczerbiak, Chris Wilcox, Earl Watson, Nick Collison)

LeBron, 04-05: 42-40 (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Jeff McInnis, Eric Snow)
Durant, 08-09: 23-59 (Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, Nenad Krstic, Nick Collison)

LeBron, 05-06: 50-32 (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Flip Murray)
Durant, 09-10: 29-21 so far (Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, Nenad Krstic, James Harden)

So clearly LeBron has had more team success (I can't see this Former Sonics team making it to 50 wins, though they'd have to go 21-11, not unfathomable; nor can I see them making the Finals next season, as LeBron did in his 4th season - though obviously the Western Conference of 2010-11 will be much, much harder than the Eastern Conference of 2006-07). LeBron had slightly better teammates, though the real advantage came in the fact that LeBron's top runnings mates were mostly veterans, guys who had been in the league for at least a few years; Durant has Westbrook and Green, young guys with tremendous upside. I would argue that Durant's situation has allowed him to mature into a better player/teammate quicker than LeBron was able to - being saddled with the Ira Newbles and Donyell Marshalls of the world cannot help in developing a young talent (there was a reason the Cavs traded Ricky Davis 22 games into LeBron's rookie season). All this being said, Round 1 (team success) goes to LeBron. Onto the individual statistics!

Per 36-minutes, the scoring is basically even. Durant has a slight edge, 23.4 to 23.0. Similarly, Durant has a slight edge in field goal percentage, .461 to .458. Durant is a better mid-range shooter, while LeBron gets to the rim more. Durant also takes a half a shot less than LeBron per 36 mintues, 17.7 compared to 18.2. In the area that is supposed to be Durant's advantage (scoring), it is pretty much a wash. Durant is a better three point shooter than LeBron was (.364 to .330), taking about the same number per 36. Durant's first true advantage comes in free throw shooting. Durant makes at a .872 clip, while LeBron shot .746 his first three seasons. They take almost exactly the same number of free throws per-36 (7.0 and 6.9). Looking at advanced stats, Durant definitively wins the battle of True Shooting %, .565 to .540 (though the advantage stems greatly from the free throw gap). As for Effective FG%, Durant again has a slight edge, .492 to .488.

More areas that are pretty much a wash: rebounds per-36 - 5.7 for LeBron (1.0 off, 4.7 def) and 5.6 for Durant (1.0 off, 4.7 def - that's strange). Blocks per-36: .8 for Durant, .6 for LeBron. Turnovers per-36: 3.0 for Durant, 2.9 for LeBron. They foul at the same rate (1.7 per-36). LeBron has the edge in steals: 1.6 to 1.1 per-36.

And now we come to the heart of the matter: assists. LeBron averaged 5.7 per 36 his first three seasons, Durant 2.6. Based on their per game averages, LeBron averaged 4 more assists per game, leading to at least 8 extra points (who says I can't still do math!). LeBron is simply a much more willing passer than Durant; I watched most of LeBron's games those first three seasons (and the next four as well, obvo) and he passed a lot. Maybe a little too much, especially in end of game situations. He had yet to find the balance he has now between facilitator-LeBron and scorer-LeBron (one need only look at the Portland game earlier this season, when LeBron had 31 points and 2 assists at the half, and finished with 41 and 8, along with 10 rebounds). It is slightly unfair to simply say that LeBron passes more than Durant - he had the ball in his hands more than Durant does. LeBron played (esp. in the early days before the arrival of Mo Williams) a point-forward type position, so he clearly had more opportunities to get assists, as evidenced by LeBron's ridiculous advantage in Assist %: 31.2 to 13.2 (assist percentage is "an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor"). Interestingly enough, Durant and LeBron had very similar Usage % (which is "an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor"), with LeBron having the slight edge: 30.6 to 29.2. So not only did LeBron "use" more possessions (those that ended in either shot attempts, free throws, or turnovers by LeBron, he almost tripled Durant in the percentage of teammates' field goals assisted (and to add circumstantial evidence, LeBron has a ridiculous amount of passes that end with his teammates shooting free throws - great passes to an open Z or Andy under the basket, when the defense's only recourse is to foul).

LeBron also holds a large advantage in all the advanced stats: PER, Win Shares, Offensive and Defensive Rating. I'm not going to pretend that I understand how these stats are calculated, but I have faith in them. BELIEVE WHAT THE MACHINE TELLS YOU!

If we just look at the stats for each player's third season alone (the current one for Durant), the same things for the most part hold true: scoring, shooting (except FT%), steals and blocks are all pretty much even. Durant takes the lead in rebounding, but LeBron has the same advantage in assists. LeBron still has the lead in the advanced stats (28-25 PER advantage), though Durant takes the lead in Defensive Rating.

(If we look at full careers, LeBron has much, much better stats (incl. FG%) in every single relevant category, except FT%.)

So the stats have told us that LeBron and Durant, in their first three seasons, played rather evenly, except for the fact that LeBron was a more willing passer and a better facilitator (though Durant plays with a great young PG, something LeBron didn't do until last season). From one point of view, LeBron passed more out of necessity - he was the best playmaker on his team, so naturally he will have more assists and a higher assist percentage. Durant has never been asked to be a passer, only a scorer. From the other point of view, LeBron simply is a better passer and team player. Is Earl Watson really that much better than Jeff McInnis, that Durant couldn't have the ball in his hands more?

Both play small forward, though Durant is a little taller and LeBron has the obvious advantage in physicality (weighing 260 pounds, in a conservative estimate, to Durant's 215). LeBron has become a lockdown defender in the past couple of years, also adding the chase down block (the most exciting play in Basketball, especially if you sense it coming) to his arsenal.

All of this points to the fact that LeBron is a better all around player than Durant. Again, I'm not saying Durant isn't a great player (he is definitely one of the 17 best players in the Association, along with Bosh, LeBron, Howard, Joe Johnson, Wade, 'Melo, Billups, Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, Kobe, Pau, Nash, Amare, Dirk, Duncan, and Chris Paul). But Durant is a scorer first, and a player second. Though he is a great teammate, somehow it always seems like he looks for his own shot every single time he has the ball - the same cannot be about LeBron.

LeBron is, by every conceivable metric, a better all around player.

Where I got these stats:
First three seasons: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=tXsNM
Third Season: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=wPT4Y