So the short list for the 2010 World Championship was announced today. 27 players in all, 9 returning from the Redeem Team, and only two minor surprises in the way of guys being left off the list: Brandon Roy, who apparently doesn't want to put unneeded stress on his knees (a concern I can understand) and Rajon Rondo, who apparently was "unresponsive" to advances made by USA Basketball, something I can't understand (not that I would want Rondo on the 12-man team, but come on, it's playing for the national team!).
Anyhow, it's time to look forward, not behind. This list puts a crimp in my dream roster for the World Championships (starting CP3, Kobe, 'Melo, LeBron, Howard and having Wade, Roy, Deron Williams, KD, Jeff Green, Bosh, and Bynum off the bench). Roy, Green and Bynum were left off the short list (for the latter two I don't know if they didn't want to play or if Colangelo didn't pick them). Since Durant is obviously going to make the team, I thought having his buddy and OKC teammate Jeff Green (no slouch himself, mind you) there to keep company/make him feel comfortable would be a good thing. Oh well. And Bynum would be great to have, especially due to his familiarity with Kobe.
Here is the story with the 27 players. http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/olybb/news/story?id=4902362
Some I can tell you right off the bat will not be playing for the US in either 2010 or 2012: Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo. Actually those are the only two guys I can say with certainty will not make the team. The rest I can envision contributing solid minutes.
Of the nine returnees, eight are locks (though LeBron, Wade, and Bosh have all said that contract talks come first, Team USA second, but let's forget about that for now): Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. You could put Adam Morrison, Kwame Brown, Hilton Armstrong, and Brian Cardinal with those 8 and still win gold. But we might as well fill the remaining four slots with the best possible players (Carlos Boozer is the other Redeem Teamer returning, but he got the least minutes in the Olympics, and, though he is playing really right now, I don't consider him on par with the 8 locks).
So who should be the final four? Based on my thinking, here is who we have to choose from: Boozer, Durant, Derrick Rose, Amar'e, Billups, Odom, Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala, Danny Granger, David Lee, Brook Lopez, Russell Westbrook, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Gerald Wallace.
As I said earlier, Durant is a virtual lock, so there are only three spots left to fill. Of the 9 locks, there are only two bigs (Howard and Bosh), so we need at least one or two power forwards or centers. The Redeem Team managed with three bigs (Howard, Bosh, and Boozer), with LeBron ostensibly starting at the 4 (By the way, I think the starting lineup should remain intact, but with CP3 replacing Kidd.) The one criticism against the team in 2008 was a lack of depth up front, so let's assume that Colangelo will want to address that by adding two bigs to go along with Bosh and Howard.
There are four centers to choose from: Jefferson, Perk, Lee, and Lopez. My initial choice is Jefferson, as I thought he would have been a lock on this team, due to his performance over the previous couple of seasons, though this year he has seemed to regress a little, with injuries playing a big role in that regression. No way I'm choosing Perk - he's a thug with no discernible skills (and plays for Boston). Lopez, I like his fundamentals, but he needs the ball in his hands to be effective. That leaves us with David Lee. Lee has stepped up his game this season, and probably should have been an All-Star. There is clearly a focus on athleticism in the international game, and Lee is the most athletic of the available centers. Plus, whiteness returns to the National Team after being shut out in 2008!
As for power forwards, these are the options: Boozer, Amar'e, Odom, Love, Aldridge. Not exactly talent on par with the rest of the roster. Each guy does bring skill to the table. Boozer: experience with the team, mid-range game, post moves. Amar'e: athleticism, finishing ability, great on the fast break. Odom: athleticism, ball-handling, outside shooting. Love: rebounding, passing. Aldridge: mid-range game. And we can't forget about Gerald Wallace, who is technically a small forward, but is averaging almost 11 rebounds per game this season.
Of course each of these players has his flaws, too. Boozer: soft (because he went to Duke, ftw). Amar'e: mid-range game comes and goes, a sieve defensively. Odom: only plays hard when he wants to. Love: not nearly enough experience - let's wait til 2012 to truly consider Love. Aldridge: soft, no defense, don't trust his finishing ability. Wallace: size, consistency.
Well this is tough. What I want to happen and what I think will happen are two completely different things. I think that Boozer will get tapped, in no small part due to Mike Krzyzewski returning to coach (Krzyzewski had Boozer at Duke). My heart says Gerald Wallace, because holy crap there could be some crazy-ass lineups with him. But I just don't trust him. Let's leave this until the end, and move onto the guard and small forward spots.
If Colangelo follows the model from 2008, Chauncey Billups fits the Jason Kidd Veteran Point Guard role (though, you know, with actual skill). However, I think CP3 starts, which would expatiate the veteran point guard role.
(Tangent: The problem, if one wants to call it that, with the ridiculous boom of young talent, is that it doesn't allow the other young talent right behind it to have the same opportunities for growth. Chris Paul and Deron Williams are the "veterans" at the point, though they are only 24 and 25, respectively. Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, the two young point guards on the short list, are each 21. I can't envision a situation in which Rose or Westbrook would unseat Paul or Williams on the national team except for the latter two deciding not to play. Even in 2016 in Rio, CP3 and Deron will just have only reached their 30s and, assumedly, will still be two of the best PGs in the Association. What of Rose and Westbrook, then? Not to mention Tyreke Evans, John Wall, and any other uber-talented young point guard?)
The team carried three point guards in 2008. If we assume the same will happen this time around, then either Rose or Westbrook should be included to apprentice with CP3 and Deron. Rose has the higher upside and will eventually make an Olympic/World Championship team, but I think Westbrook would have the most to gain from training and playing with the team. Plus, he fills the role of Durant's teammate/buddy. So let's add Westbrook.
Due to miscounting on my part (see, I do suck at math), I thought I had two guard spots to fill, but, alas, there is only one. Let it be known that if Brandon Roy were available, he would fill that spot no question.
As of right now, I have 11 players selected: CP3, Deron Williams, Westbrook, Kobe, Wade, 'Melo, LeBron, KD, Bosh, Howard, and Lee. I'll reiterate that I think this 11 could play with, oh, I don't know, noted clubhouse cancer Ricky Davis and still win the gold.
I'm down to Gerald Wallace and Amar'e in my head. It should be mentioned I didn't even consider Iggy, Gay, or Granger due to the ridiculous depth at SF ('Melo, LeBron, KD). Yes, I know Wallace is a SF, but in name only, not in spirit. You know what, defense beats offense any day - Gerald Wallce, boom baby.
OK so my hypothetical 2010 World Championship team looks like this:
Starters: Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Dwight Howard
Bench: Deron Williams, Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant, Gerald Wallce, Chris Bosh, David Lee.
Gold Medal, here we come.
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